Active Atlantic

Some of our older (or more politically-inclined) readers may remember the 1952 US presidential election, in which republican Dwight. D. Eisenhower defeated democrat Adlai Stevenson to become the 34th president of the United States. Perhaps the most famous aspect of Eisenhower’s campaign was the slogan “We Like Ike”, a favorite refrain among his supporters. Now however, over 50 years later, residents of Florida and the southeast US coast most decidedly do not like Ike – Hurricane Ike that is. Ike is one of four tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic basin as of the beginning of September in what is proving to be a rather active 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far during the 2008 season, 10 named tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic basin, of which 4 have become hurricanes, and 2 (Bertha and Gustav) have become major hurricanes. A hurricane is considered major if it attains sustained wind speeds in excess of 110 miles per hour, corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. According to NOAA, in an average season, the Atlantic basin will see around 11 named systems, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Mid-season forecasts from CSU and NOAA call for an active season this year, with between 14 and 17 named systems predicted. Even though the season is far from over, we’ve already had our share of memorable storms – Gustav in particular.

Gustav began its life as a tropical wave crossing the Atlantic, developing into a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea. Gustav strengthened into a tropical storm and later a category 1 hurricane as it moved northwest, making landfall in Haiti on Aug. 26th, triggering flooding and landslides that killed over 70 people and left thousands more homeless. Weakened by interaction with Haiti’s mountainous terrain, Gustav weakened to a tropical storm as it turned westward and crossed Jamaica, killing 11, causing heavy flooding, and severely damaging the nation’s banana crop. After crossing Jamaica, Gustav resumed a more northwesterly motion, taking it out into the warm waters of the northwest Caribbean.

Fed by very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear, two conditions ideal for tropical cyclone development, Gustav rapidly intensified into a major category 4 hurricane by Aug. 30th, bearing down on western Cuba. The heaviest damage in Cuba occurred on Isla de la Juventud (the Isle of Youth), which sustained a direct hit from category 4 Gustav’s eyewall. Amazingly, no fatalities were reported in Cuba, but the 342 km/h (212 mi/h) wind gust recorded in the Cuban town of Paso Real del San Diego was the highest ever recorded in the nation. Cuban officials called Gustav the worst hurricane to hit Cuba in 50 years.

Gustav’s story didn’t end there, as it continued into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane, and forecast tracks brought it ashore just west of New Orleans, almost 3 years to the day after Hurricane Katrina devastated the same region. This time officials reacted swiftly, ordering evacuations days in advance, and using busses, trains, and even helicopters to evacuate residents from the New Orleans metro area. With all eyes upon it, Gustav made its final landfall along the central Louisiana coast early on Sept. 1st, with sustained winds of 115 mi/h. The system of levees protecting New Orleans and surrounding parishes held up against the 8-14 feet of storm surge that Gustav dragged ashore, and a major flooding disaster was averted. From there Gustav moved northwest, weakening to a remnant low as it continued inland, bringing flooding rains to much of Louisiana, Arkansas, and even eastern Oklahoma. Even here in central Oklahoma we’re feeling the effects of Gustav, in the form of clouds, rain, and below average temperatures.

Looking forward, we’re far from being out of the woods. Hurricane season lasts from June 1 until November 30, meaning there are still three more months ahead of us. However, for those of us along the Gulf Coast and in the Southern Great Plains, we may see a bit of a respite—many models forecast Hanna and Ike to turn north along the eastern seaboard in response to a ridge over the north Atlantic and trough expected to develop near the east coast.

Until winter comes and ushers in an end to the hurricane season, you can keep up to date with the latest in tropical weather at the website of the

National Hurricane Center.



Story is © Nate Snook, 2008